The Challengers vs. The Incumbents
Jun 16th, 2009 | By Aaron Gomes | Category: analysisThe emergence of rapidly developing economies (RDE’s) such as China, India, Brazil and Russia needs little introduction. However, what is appealing to globally minded investors like us, is the speedy ascendency of companies based in these RDE’s who are now positioning themselves to challenge the incumbent industry leaders. Think about it. Your IBM ThinkPad is actually owned by Lenovo, China’s leading computer maker. The sleek Jaguars and powerful Land Rovers that were formerly owned by Ford Motor Company are now property of Tata Motors, a leading Indian automaker. And with ambition riding high, DP World, a company based in Dubai has even had the daring to launch a bid for the management of twenty two US ports! What these examples highlight is the exponential growth achieved by companies operating out of RDE’s in a limited period of time. In just two years, from 2006 to 2008, the number of companies based in Brazil, China, India and Russia on the Fortune Global 500 list quadrupled from 15 to 62. This is a trend that anyone interested in global markets must follow
So then, the question arises as to how exactly are these local powerhouse companies bursting out onto the international scene? How does Lenovo, who began operations in a two room shack just 25 years ago, purchase the giant that is the IBM PC division? The foremost reason is the challenger company’s privileged access to markets and resources. Many challenger companies enjoyed successes in their domestic markets because their government provided defense against incursions by industry leaders. Tata Motors firmly established itself in India because their cars were not subject to an import tax of more than 50%, imposed on foreign cars. These regulated environments enabled the challenger companies to cultivate the size and scale necessary to globalize their operations. Secondly, many RDE companies have access to low cost labor pools, enabling them to enjoy a significant cost advantage over competitors operating in a more developed country. These fast growing companies also provide exciting opportunities for new, fresh recruits and are always drawing in the best talent available in the country. Another major reason is the willingness of these companies to use acquisitions as a quick path to global leadership. Many challenger companies identify foreign peers with a solid management team and minimize interference in company operations, significantly increasing the chances of a successful acquisition.
It is vital that investors recognize this trend to base more of their portfolios in RDE companies. Inevitably, the majority of these companies are based in the BRIC countries but there are a few which operate out of the fast growing economies of the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Latin America. I, for one, favor investments made in the BRIC countries as nearly guaranteed successes in the long term, while money put into companies based in the fast growing economies of the Middle East and Latin America offer immense potential for quick returns in the shorter term. My favored stocks are the BYD Group in China, Tata Motors and Reliance Industries in India and Emirates Airlines in the United Arab Emirates. If you know of any company, similar to those above, feel free to share them with all of us and help us be more aware of global investment opportunities.









Acquisitions are surely a way for fast expansion of these challenger companies Aaron mentioned here. However, I think there’re drawbacks of expanding through acquisitions because the foreign companies such as those from China/India face a completely different market from their local markets. For example, the Lenovo group from China didn’t have much time to enjoy their honeymoon with IBM PC division after they acquired the Thinkpad brand as the sale of its products declined year to year. Culture difference, markets positioning all contributed to the difficult situation. Lenovo gave up using the brand of IBM but Lenovo in States only two years after the acquisition, but the brand of Lenovo not only has little influence overseas, but also gives American customers an impression of a food company. The confusion of Ideapad and Thinkpad also limited the growth of Lenovo. Thus, from my point of view, the challengers do need to fully consider the cost of acquisition and research more about the new market they are entering.
Aaron is right about the fact that there’re more and more challengers coming up from the RDE. Hummer maybe sold to a Chinese company based in Chengdu, Sichuan. Volvo sale also involved some rumors about Chery, the famous Chinese motor company. If you ask me about some investment opportunities, I may suggest some Chinese state owned companies which has great growth prospect such as Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (NYSE). The Chinalco constantly seeks acquisition opportunities to expand overseas. The most known action it took recently is the deal with Tinto, which unfortunately didn’t go through. However, there’s news saying that it is now targeting on Anglo American plc and offer a bid to value this company at about GBP27.7 billion ($45.6 billion). The Chery Inc I mentioned early on may be listed within this year at Shanghai and Hongkong. Similar to BYD Aaron suggested in the article, this seems a good investment for me too.